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Alabama vs Mississippi State: Prediction

By Andrew Edwards

Staff Writer 

No. 5 Alabama (8-1) currently sits as a 19-point favorite over the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5), but the game very could be closer than that number – depending on a few factors. 

We’ll base this prediction on the assumption that Tua Tagovailoa will play most of the game, although that’s probably a stretch at this point. Earlier this week, Nick Saban said that his quarterback will be a “game-time” decision, the same rhetoric that we heard leading up until the LSU matchup. 

So, if Tagovailoa plays, the question will be: for how long? My guess he’s probably in the game for a half to three quarters, but it’ll entirely be based off how the game is being played until that point. 

Mississippi State has lost four out of their last five games, but they were competitive to a certain degree in all the losses (minus the AU game). They have a fairly good offense led by running back Kylin Hill, who has already reached the 1000-yard mark for the year in rushing yards. 

Bulldogs stating QB Tommy Stevens also returned in their last game against Arkansas, and looked quite impressive after returning from his early season injury. 

The problem for the Bulldogs comes from the defense. They currently rank 111thin FBS in yards per pass attempt and are 11thor worse in the SEC in all major defensive categories. That’s not a good sign as they go up against one the best offenses in the entire country. 

Prediction

Earlier this week I said that Alabama will need to run away with this game begin it’s climb back into the college football playoff. My initial gut reaction at the beginning of the week was that the tide would walk through this one easily, leaving little doubt in the mind of the committee that this team is worthy of a top four spot.

But with the injury to Tua, the game being in Starkville, the early kickoff time, and Mississippi State’s re-emerging offense, I think the Bulldogs keep it way closer than a lot of people are predicting.

Score

Alabama 42 

Mississippi State 27